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Australian Constituency - by Craig Hill

My fellow citizens: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors.

I thank President Bush for his service to our nation...

(APPLAUSE)

... as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.

Barack Obama Inaugural Speech



Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath.

The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forebears, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age.

Homes have been lost, jobs shed, businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly, our schools fail too many, and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.


These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable, but no less profound, is a sapping of confidence across our land; a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, that the next generation must lower its sights.

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real, they are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this America: They will be met.

(APPLAUSE)

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics.

We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.

(APPLAUSE)

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less.

It has not been the path for the faint-hearted, for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.

Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things -- some celebrated, but more often men and women obscure in their labor -- who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.

For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life. For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West, endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.

For us, they fought and died in places Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.

Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions -- that time has surely passed.

Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

(APPLAUSE)

For everywhere we look, there is work to be done.

The state of our economy calls for action: bold and swift. And we will act not only to create new jobs but to lay a new foundation for growth.

We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.

We will restore science to its rightful place and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality...

(APPLAUSE)

... and lower its costs.

We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.

All this we can do. All this we will do.

Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions, who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short, for they have forgotten what this country has already done, what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose and necessity to courage.

What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them, that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long, no longer apply.

The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works, whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified.

Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end.

And those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account, to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day, because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.

Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched.

But this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control. The nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous.

The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our gross domestic product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on the ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart -- not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.

(APPLAUSE)

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.

Our founding fathers faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations.

Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake.

And so, to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and we are ready to lead once more.

(APPLAUSE)

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the sturdy alliances and enduring convictions.

They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use. Our security emanates from the justness of our cause; the force of our example; the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy, guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort, even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We'll begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan.

With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat and roll back the specter of a warming planet.

We will not apologize for our way of life nor will we waver in its defense.

And for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that, "Our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken. You cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you."

(APPLAUSE)

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness.

We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus, and nonbelievers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth.

And because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect.

To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.

To those...

(APPLAUSE)

To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

(APPLAUSE)

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds.

And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to the suffering outside our borders, nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages.

We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service: a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves.

And yet, at this moment, a moment that will define a generation, it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies.

It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break; the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours.

It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

Our challenges may be new, the instruments with which we meet them may be new, but those values upon which our success depends, honesty and hard work, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism -- these things are old.

These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history.

What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility -- a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character than giving our all to a difficult task.

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence: the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed, why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall. And why a man whose father less than 60 years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

(APPLAUSE)

So let us mark this day in remembrance of who we are and how far we have traveled.

In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river.

The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood.

At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:

"Let it be told to the future world that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet it."

America, in the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words; with hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come; let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

Thank you. God bless you.

(APPLAUSE)

And God bless the United States of America.

(APPLAUSE)
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Julia Gillard Guantanamo Statement

January 2nd 2009 13:36
Australia, along with a number of other friends and allies of the United States, has been approached to consider resettling detainees from Guantanamo Bay.

This is a request from the Bush administration, and follows President Bush’s statement that he would like to see Guantanamo closed. This is not a request from President Elect Obama.

The Bush Administration first approached Australia in early 2008 with a request to resettle a small group of detainees from Guantanamo in Australia.

After appropriate consideration, Australia declined to allow resettlement of that small group in Australia.

The Bush Administration approached Australia again in early December 2008 with a second request to assist with relocation.

Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard
Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard


Australia, as an ally of the United States, is examining this second request.

Notwithstanding that it is unlikely Australia would accept these detainees, given the fact that the Bush Administration has formally approached Australia with this request, the request demands proper consideration.

The Australian Government makes no apology for taking a very hard line against terrorism, which includes continuing to work closely with the United States and other allies worldwide in the global effort to defeat terrorism.

Media Statement January 2nd
Julia Gillard Deputy Prime Minister
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Australia and Bangladesh have formally agreed to work together against terrorism in South Asia.

The Secretary of the Home Affairs Ministry of Bangladesh, Mr Abdul Karim, together with Australia’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Mr Douglas Foskett, today signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation to Combat International Terrorism. The signing ceremony took place in Dhaka.

The Memorandum will facilitate greater cooperation between Australia and Bangladesh to prevent and suppress international terrorism. It will provide a framework for operational agencies to cooperate in areas such as information and intelligence exchange, law enforcement activities, money laundering and the financing of international terrorism, and the development of effective counter-terrorism legal instruments.

Stephen Smith


Australia and Bangladesh have developed a constructive and expanding relationship both bilaterally and in the international arena since Bangladesh achieved independence in 1971. We have strong trade, people-to-people and sporting links and Australia has a significant development cooperation program with Bangladesh.

The Australian Government is also sending three election observers to help monitor Bangladesh’s 29 December national elections. Australia will also provide approximately $1 million to support the Asia Foundation’s election program in Bangladesh.

Bob McMullan, Parliamentary Secretary for International Development Assistance, will be monitoring the elections a part of a delegation from the National Democratic Institute and Federal Member of Parliament, the Hon Dr Sharman Stone, will monitor the elections as part of the Commonwealth election observer mission.

Australia has concluded bilateral counter-terrorism cooperation MOUs with thirteen countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia, Fiji, East Timor, Pakistan, Brunei, India, PNG, Afghanistan and Turkey. The conclusion of the MOUs reflects the importance Australia and its partner countries place on close and effective cooperation between governments against international terrorism.

Media Release Stephen Smith (Minister For Foreign Affairs)
28th December 2008
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Keith Windschuttle speaks

November 9th 2006 11:49
Last night Keith Windschuttle addressed a Quadrant dinner and presented the Sir John Latham Memorial Lecture entitled: "The struggle for Western values in an age of deceit" His presentation was wide ranging, insightful and very well argued. Windschuttle came across as someone who is very well read and has the capacity to link his reading into a coherent, unified whole.

Unfortunately Keith didn't really outline how to defend Western values but rather told us about how these values were being undermined to various left wing intellectuals. His lecture touched on a number of points including:
1) The devastating effect postmodernism is having on the discipline of history. The denial of object truth is undermining the study of history. Historians who have been discredited continue to teach without any diminution of their reputation.
2) The use of atrocity myths to attack legitimate governments, in particular the myth of the SIEVX, which is being written into high school curricula as fact. The myth being that the Australian Navy knew the whereabouts of the ship and purposely let it sink – a despicable libel on the Navy.
3) The move by transnational progressives to undermine the legitimate authority of the nation state - a subject I have written on recently.
4) The fact that Australia is often described in a school text books as a racist society yet not one single official institution in Australia is racist. Australia is one of the most tolerant societies in the world. Subject to immigration guidelines, anyone can become an Australian so long as they obey the laws of the land. On this point I asked Keith if he had a view on the recent reexamination of the citizenship tests for people wishing to become Australians. How do you identify those who won't play by the rules? He agreed this is a hard question and that there are no easy answers.
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The importance of nation states

October 31st 2006 08:59
This piece is based largely on thr work of Roger Scruton. See belwo for references.

Worldwide there is a growing trend for disadvantaged people to leave dysfunctional and failing countries and to emigrate towards prosperous, stable, democratic nation states. This phenomenon is hardly surprising as, above all else, people value civil peace and good governance. A well-ordered society is a rare and valuable thing and historically has proved very difficult to achieve. The democratic nation state has proved itself to be the most successful form of political entity to ensure peaceful relations between citizens, but in Europe its sovereignty is being threatened by transnational bodies such as the UN, the EU and even the WHO. This trend has the potential to destabilise many European countries and ought to be resisted. The following passage illustrates this point with a recent example from the UK.

Thousands of people claiming gypsy or "traveller" status have recently emigrated from Ireland, where strictly enforced legislation confines gypsy parks to places where they will not threaten the amenities of other residents. Incoming gypsies approach impoverished English farmers in order to buy land scheduled for agricultural use. They take possession, scrape away topsoil, put down concrete, and install the infrastructure required for an American-style trailer park. The council serves a planning contravention notice and, thanks to the Human Rights aspect, the subsequent legal battle can be fought through court after court, to the point where eviction becomes difficult or impossible. In one instance, at the village of Cottenham near Cambridge, the incomers have achieved a population of 800, creating unmanageable problems of waste, noise, pollution and crime, and an all but unmanageable source of social conflict. Over 1,000 residents staged a protest and refused to pay their council tax until the problem was addressed. Local residents have obeyed planning regulations in the expectation that these regulations will be impartially enforced. They have typically put all their savings into their home, knowing that its value will reflect their work and the amenities safeguarded by the law. Overnight, therefore, their savings are wiped out, since no one will buy a house adjacent to a gypsy site. Planning regulations are a vital aspect of the social fabric as they safeguard investments, but they cannot be easily enforced against gypsies. Who claim their "human rights", trumping the merely conventional rights offered by the laws on planning.

The primary role of government is to ensure civil peace with the borders of its own country and civil peace prevails when the people in a certain territory have a collective sense of belonging together. If people who live cheek by jowl have a sense of neighbourliness towards one another they are more likely to live peaceably. Historically we can identify three main types of body politic with which people associate themselves: the tribal community, the creed community and the nation state. Tribal communities define themselves by blood ties alone. One cannot enter or leave them except by birth or death. Creed communities defined themselves by faith. Those who have right belief and who follow the prescribed rituals belong to the creed community. All others are strangers to be converted or opposed. The nation state defines itself through associating with the land. Those citizens who obey the laws of the land and who feel an association with the symbols, culture and institutions of the territory are members of the nation. Citizens who identify themselves in this way live side by side with strangers and treat them as neighbours.

Civil peace only prevails when people willingly obey the law. Obedience to the law cannot be enforced. The Soviet Union tried to enforce obedience through a brutal regime of fear and mutual distrust between neighbours but ultimately failed. However, citizens will only willingly obey the law if it has certain attributes. There must be one law for all. Citizens rich and poor, powerful and humble, sophisticated and rustic must be governed by the same law of the land. The citizens must also have a legitimate means of modifying the law and they need to feel a sense of shared ownership of the law. This occurs when the law has grown organically over centuries as a society establishes itself in its homeland. National governments have the ability to develop these attributes in the law of the land and therefore are able to attract the allegiance of their citizens. They are answerable to their people for the laws they pass. They are elected by their people who therefore feel a sense of connection to and affinity with them.

In contrast to this, transnational governmental bodies such as the UN and EU are appointed not elected, they are not accountable for their laws, they are not answerable to those who must obey them, they are not burdened with the duty of implementing the laws they pass and therefore tend to be theoretical rather than practically connected with the populations they seek to govern.

When a populace has its national governance usurped and are forced to obey laws they had no say in formulating and which are administered by an unaccountable body they feel alienated from the political process and eventually refuse to obey the law.

The potential of anarchy then arises. We have seen examples of this recently in 2005 when, during two weeks of rioting, 4,551 vehicles were torched and police arrested nearly 3,000 people.

Rather then experimenting with untested transnational governance of European nations legislators would be much better advised to rely on the organic growth of the nation state to ensure the lasting peace and stability of the region.

Further Reading
1) Scruton, R., The Need for Nations, Civitas, 2006.
2) Scruton R., The West and the Rest, Continuum, 2005.
3) Rabkin, J., The Case for Sovereignty: Why the World Should Welcome American Independence, AEI Press; 2004.


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The Way Ahead for Europe

October 18th 2006 06:31
Greetings Blogophiles

On Sunday week I'm giving a lecture entitled "The Way Ahead for Europe - Nation States or Transnational governance". It's part of the Sydney Convivium of the Arts.

My lectures is based the premise that the primary role of government is to ensure civil peace with the borders of it's own country. Civil peace will only be established when there is the rule of law - that is to say that the people who live within the land regard each other as neighbors. Their primary loyalty is to their country not to a creed, religion, clan or tribe Furthermore, a society of neighbors will live peacefully when they willingly obey the law of the law. This crucial point. Obedience to the law cannot be enforced. Social cohesion relies on the vast majority of people willing paying their taxes, respecting the rights of others and living peaceable with their fellow citizens. But, they will only willingly obey if the law has a number of attributes: it must be one law for everyone and no one can be above the law. The citizens must feel as of they have a legitimate way of changing the law, they must feel a sense of shared ownership of the law, built up from a long history of settlement in a particular place.

National governments bring abut these attributes. They are answerable to their people for the law they pass. They are elected by their people who therefore feel a sense of connection with and affinity with them.

In contrast to this, transnational governmental bodes such as the UN, the EU, the ICC and so one are appointed not elected. They are not accountable for their laws, they are not answerable to those who must obey them nor are they burdened with the duty of implementing the laws they pass and therefore tend to be theoretical rather than practically connected with the populations they seek to govern. When a populace has it's national governance usurped and is obliged to obey laws they had no say in formulating and which are administered by a unaccountable body from which they feel alienated they tend to be come disconnected from the from the political process and refuse to obey the law.

The result is anarchy.

As the EU expands its powers with the proposed introduction of a European police force it runs the risk of dissolving the social fabric of the nation states which made the continent the power it once was.
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Missing the point on Aussie Values

September 20th 2006 23:39
I love James O'Loghlin on ABC 702 Sydney in the evenings. He a funny guy, very intelligent and has a disarming manners which means he can ask callers the most personal questions without offending them. Sometimes though he gets carried away with his cleverness and misses the point entirely.

For example on Tuesday night in place of his regular "Norman the Quiz" he ran in Great Aussie Quiz which was supposed to test whether or not the two contestants knew enough about Australia to retain their citizenship. This was in the wake of the Howard government's announcement that new migrants would have sit a compulsory citizenship exam testing their knowledge of English and various other facts about Australian society.

O'Loghlin had great fun pointing out how little the contestants knew about such trivia as the length of the Australian coastline and the location of a number of obscure NT towns. In doing so he was hinting that we can't ask migrants to know about our country if we ourselves are ignorant of these details.

However, this misses the point entirely. Knowing the length of the Australian coastline, Don Bradman's batting average or the identity of Phar Lap has nothing to do with living well in Australia. To live productively and peacefully in Australia migrants need only subscribe to one fundamental idea - that the law of the land is paramount and that allegiance to other forms of law be they religious or otherwise must be secondary.

That would be the only question I would put on my immigration test: "Do you acknowledge that in Australia, the laws of Australia take precedence over all other religious codes of law and do you agree to obey and live by the laws of Australia?"

I would then publicise the names of people who have answered this question in the affirmative and made an oath to that effect. This would weed out religious fundamentalists who prefer to follow other laws, be they Christian, Jewish, Muslim or any other before they follow the laws of the land in which they live.
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Where to for the West? - Part 3

September 5th 2006 07:41
In "Where to for the West?" parts 1 & 2 we saw that the population of many Western European countries are in decline - not a healthy prognosis for any society. But when we look at immigration, the picture looks even worse.

Take Italy for example. It's population is in freefall with a fertility rate of 1.38 and a population of 58 million due to fall to 51 million by 2050. Furthermore, Italy has an annual net migration (defined as the number the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants) of 120,000. By way of contrast, Iran has annual net migration of -120,000. So not only is Italy's population falling, the number of native born Italians is plummeting.

If you, as I do, believe that it is inherently healthy for a country to know, maintain cherish and promulgate it's traditional culture, this is a trend which cuts to the heart of Italy's well being - and lest I be accused of racism or xenophobia, I believe this goes for any country - not just the West.

The next question to be addressed is what to do about declining populations. We'll look at that next time.

All data for this post gleaned from World Population Prospect
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Where to for the West? - Part 2

September 4th 2006 07:01
Following on from "Where to for the West?" part 1 let's have a look at the population predictions for two countries: Italy and Iran. The bottom line is that the Italians are not having babies, and we can't blame it on the fact that they're all watching the football. Italy's fertility rate is 1.2 - that is 1.2 children for every woman. Not bad for a Catholic country which frowns of all forms of contraception. Iran on the other hand as a fertility rate of 2.04. A quick glance at the graph show you how the two populations will change in the next 50 years or so.

And it's not just these two countries. The stats for the whole of Europe and Asia and equally salient. The fertility rate for Europe is 1.43 and for Asia it's 2.35.

The message is that the Western Europe is on the back foot when it comes to sheer weight of numbers and that's without even taking immigration into account, a topic we'll look at in the next post.

All data for this post gleaned from World Population Prospect
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Where to for the West? - Part 1

September 2nd 2006 21:35
When sitting down to write a new post I often ask myself 'What is the most important thing I could write about today?' After all, if I'm going to spend half an hour or so of my incredibly valuable time massaging the keyboard I might as well make the most of it.

www.spiked-online.com recently asked a number of thinkers to name the key challenges faced by the world in the 21st century were. Roger Scruton replied:

The key challenge for philosophy in the 21st century is to rid itself of phoney French nonsense of the Derrida, Deleuze, Badiou variety, to re-establish contact with the cultural and artistic traditions of our civilization, and to engage with the intellectual questions that really matter, concerning the nature and destiny of man.

In the next 18 years, society (i.e. Western society) should be addressing the issues of faith (whether, which and why), sex (whether, when and why not), food (what, why and where from), and children (whose and how many). If those questions are not addressed Western society will either die out or be Islamised: and which of those two fates is worse is also an issue that we should be addressing.

I find it difficult to disagree with these and thought it would be worth addressing some of the hard questions he raises. Let's start with
'sex (whether, when and why not)". This question is directly related to the warning Scruton gives that "Western society will either die out or be Islamised" because despite the fact of IVF, sex between a man and a woman is still the most popular means of producing future generations.

It is a well known fact the fertility rate in many Western Countries is below 2.1 births per woman. That is to say these countries are not producing enough children to ensure their survival. Current birth and fertility rates tell us something about how societies will fare in the future but the issue is complicated by age distribution of women and the life expectancy in each country. If country A has a high proportion of elderly women, a low fertility rate isn't as drastic as if the proportion of women in each age group is evenly distributed. A country with a high fertility rate and a low life expectancy is no better off than a country with a low fertility rate.

If we really want to get a fetch on what a country will be like in 2020 say we need to know an estimate of its total population, the proportion of its citizens which will be native born and the proportion which will be immigrants. More on this to follow soon.
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